Can not at the moment the real trend is expected in relation to the U.S. dollar in the currency market the coming period, it is difficult at the moment the fact predicted path of the U.S. dollar over the coming weeks. In general, it is the simple technical point of view, it is possible to say that the U.S. dollar has put himself in the position of the prospects for the downward trend coming period, and after the rise in EUR / USD back above 1.3500 levels during trading last Friday. In general, rolling professional may be noted that the movement recorded by the EUR / USD in the currency market are not reflected significantly on the major pairs other last week, in fact, those couples are still a far cry from their peaks and still the U.S. dollar recorded good levels where . But in general, the prospects for the next direction of the U.S. dollar is still difficult at this time to expect more minutes.
As is customary for the currency market, where rates are still risk of the important factors that must be considered in order to anticipate the movement of prices coming period and, in general, they may not be high at the moment, but we have seen during previous periods recorded a change and a rise abruptly due to any news may be issued and then changed direction abruptly currencies and fast. But there are plenty of indicators that could be pursued to measure rates of risk and try to anticipate its course in the market. Among those indicators that should be pursued is the financial situation and news from the European financial crisis, there is still the situation in the European region, mysterious and somewhat negative. In the past weeks, the European Union was working hard to address the financial problems facing the European region now, but it has yet to reach any agreement unspoken yet to face the current financial problems. This is in addition to the news coming from China, which is possible to raise interest rates soon, and Japan could face problems related to debt also, in addition to watching news on the outcome of business for the fourth quarter of last year, which could have a significant impact on the movement of financial markets, the coming period.
In general, it is difficult at this time to identify the factors that could represent a real threat to the market is clear, but it is possible to be very important for traders to do the follow-up news awaited publication of the Fed even though it is the expectation that there is a radical change in the bank's policy on interest rates, but traders should follow the data on the decisions on economic stimulus programs in 2011.
On the other hand it is expected during the week new release of important data from the United States, such as the results of the gross domestic product for the fourth quarter the U.S., and in general, the U.S. economy seems to be on the right path towards a good recovery rates. But despite of that, but it should not be seen only to those indicators and data only, but must also look at other news and data in order to reach the rule is suitable for the general situation in the market, it must take into account the difference between the rates of risk and growth rates in the market, through Other economic data on the European crisis and U.S. economic data as well.
Euro
The euro rose to its highest level in months against the U.S. dollar during trading last week, and in general, this performance comes amid a state of calm on the European situation at the moment which made a lot of industrialized nations ten expect a further improvement in the coming period in the euro area . In general, this has led to higher demand for debt instruments in addition to the release of some positive economic data, which contributed to the rise in the euro significantly against the U.S. dollar. In general, it had been issued data from the magazine "Wall Street," pointed out that the meeting of European debt auctions during the month of January pointed to higher cash inflows in the European economy at the moment which support the euro's rise against the U.S. dollar during last week's trading.
But over the next few days, the hearing auctions bonds, Italian, Spanish, Slovak and Spanish will occupies a lot of your attention dealers, in addition to data rates of consumer confidence Germans and inflation rates as well, which could lead to the euro's rise a little, in general, all expectations these data suggest the possibility of the euro continued to rise, especially as psychological indicators for dealers indicate the direction towards buying, dealers dramatically the last period.
The technically and study the movement of historical price, it was discovered that the rise or decline of the euro / dollar in the currency market during the month of January was helping rolling in predicting the movement during the period between February and December, including nearly 70% of the time almost, and that was even In 1999, in general, the recent weeks indicate that the EUR / USD had recorded a rise the previous period, but at the moment is difficult to know whether this rise in the euro the main reason it is a buyer's real or that the reason it is doing coverage sales centers that had been opened on the pair last period, so the time is the only factor that could explain the movement of the pair during the coming period significantly.
GBP
As has been previously noted, the outlook for monetary policy, the British are still the factor most powerful influential stock GBP / USD in the currency market, which is closely linked to at the moment returns on bonds for two to five years and, in general, this correlation reflects the large rates of risk in in a market that also affect the stock significantly currencies.
In terms of fiscal policy, the Bank of England is scheduled to issue a report "Minutes" for the Special Meeting of the Commission on British policies and in general it is expected that cares traders largely coming period, and significantly it when follow-up expectations for dealers and through the Bank Credit Suisse they expect that the Bank of England to raise interest rates next period despite the lull in economic growth rates this time, in order to control inflation.
In fact, the central bank had indicated that inflationary pressures during 2010 were temporary somewhat and it is expected to continue the situation in the medium term without the bank tightened monetary policy, but it appeared that the central bank vision was wrong somehow, as inflationary pressures became clear dramatically over the long term in the United Kingdom, and in the event of any development in reading GDP for the fourth quarter, it is possible to use it as a kind of expectation for further inflationary pressures in the future, so traders will be watching largely private data of the report " Minutes "At the same time, the quarterly report on the outlook for inflation rates issued by the Bank of England.
In terms of the psychological state of dealers, all eyes in the currency market at the moment will pursue week full of economic data for the United States of America, in general, it is important that data is preliminary reading on GDP for the fourth quarter and, in general, the dealers also We will follow closely Comments expected issuance of U.S. officials coming period on growth rates and the recovery of the U.S. economy, and undoubtedly the rates of risk will remain the strongest and most important factor which could affect the movement of prices substantially coming period.
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