Economic analysis
U.S. Dollar USD
Dollar starts week down
At the end of last week's trading, the U.S. dollar was trading at low levels against the major currencies. Has been the U.S. currency for the sale of a large-scale led to decline after differing expectations for interest rates between America and the rest of Europe; where projections indicate now that rising inflationary pressures in both the European Union and Britain could force central banks there to raise interest rates to combat rising inflation more .
At the same time, inflationary pressures are still low in America, where the Fed continues to ease monetary policy. The Fed did not give any signal its intention to stop the quantitative easing program, but it seems that it is still seeking to complete the attic to buy $ 600 billion of Treasuries.
The dollar could continue its decline this week if the momentum continues to favor add more Cefqatabie the U.S. dollar. The basic data expected from America this week's Consumer Confidence Index and the meeting of the Committee Federal Open Market on Wednesday and GDP on Friday for the fourth quarter of 2010.
The EUR
Positive comments from Trichet supports the strength of the euro
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, declared Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Central Bank about the intention of the European Central Bank to fight inflation despite the differences in growth rates between Europe and the surrounding countries. Trichet was in his view of the stresses inflation and vowed to fight inflationary pressures. It is worth mentioning that the inflation rate last month in the European Union rose by 2.2%. This was the first time in two years that the high rate of inflation from the target of the European Central Bank at 2.0%.
The President of the European Central Bank that the bank would fight inflation, which is caused due to the rise in commodity prices and food. Trichet also supported the idea of setting limits and restrictions in the budget and the imposition of fiscal rules in the European Union, a proposal to continue the control of EU countries with the imposition of austerity measures there. Trichet does not see that there is a risk of recession due to reduced budgets.
There have been strong demands on the euro last week against both the U.S. dollar and the Swiss franc, with increased interest-rate differentials between Europe and the rest of the world. If released more hawkish comments from European Central Bank interest rates may be this additional support for the euro in the new trading week.
While this does not happen for more than two years, did not forget traders certainly when lifting the European Central Bank interest rates in July of 2008, a few months before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. "And therefore traders will watch for any comments from European Central Bank president in the coming period .
Japanese Yen JPY
The resumption of the dollar / yen for a downward trend
Recent price action suggests a continuation of a long-term downward trend of the dollar / yen. After this pair rise with the new year to the 83.70 level, the pair began now in a new low, where record lows last week at 81.80.
The renewed strength of the yen lead to the emergence of another wave of intervention and the Japanese Ministry of Finance in the market. It is worth mentioning that the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervened in the forex market in نتصف September in order to weaken the yen
With the continued strength of the Japanese yen, traders should take into account the possibility of intervention and the Japanese Ministry of Finance in the case of push to new highs. Traders should monitor the level of 82 and whether there will be continued in the selling of the dollar / yen below.
May hold the meeting of the Bank of Japan monetary policy statement accompanying him on Tuesday to tone down for forex traders who intend to test the desire of Japanese policy makers to intervene again in the foreign exchange market.
CRUDE OIL crude oil
Recovery in crude oil prices from the lowest level on Thursday
And reached the spot prices of crude oil last week to the highest level in two and a half year, but closed the week at a low level. This has helped prices to rise higher improvement in the economy and positive views toward the economy. The high reading China's total jewelery production to growing expectations that China will take further measures in its monetary policy to curb rising inflation. Thus, any tightening of monetary policy in China may lead to a reduction of growth rates and demand for commodities.
The crude oil prices stabilized on Friday after a sharp decline of 2.75% on Thursday. This therefore may be a buying opportunity for crude oil, where prices are approaching the 87.20 support level, which represents the rising trend line that started from the lowest level in August, which is today at the same level.
Technical Analysis
EUR / USD EUR \ USD
Close the chart of the Japanese candles for this pair model head Almst "shaved head", thus indicating that the momentum to the upside. Thus traders can expect further gains for the pair with a target Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% to the price movement n November to January. This represents a key resistance level from October at 1.3740.
GBP / USD GPB \ USD
The pair has recorded significant gains since the beginning of the year, up from lows at 1.5340 to the highest level last week at 1.6060. It seems that the pair gets support from the exponential moving average for ten days, which today stands at the 1.5885 level. This may be an appropriate level for the development of a stopping point for the purchase order.
USD / JPY USD / JPY
The pair found resistance level Thursday when the moving average of fifty-five days, and who had worked in the past as a support or resistance level is good. This level comes the day at 83.10. Your support is located the pair at a record low last week at 81.80.
USD / CHF USD / CHF
The bearish trend continues for this pair, where the bounce of the level of 61.8% retracement of the December movement, before it turns down. Traders go short on this pair with a target level of support at 0.9520. Resistance comes in at 0.9685 and 0.9780.
Wild Card
Gold GOLD
After the completion of the head and shoulders pattern last week broke the neckline upward trend below the lows in the period between October and January, it seems that the price of this item (the price of gold - gold price) back towards the neckline. This might give forex traders a chance to enter the sale if prices approached in today's neckline at $ 1.360
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